Dr. Baruch Ziv, who has some four decades of experience researching weather systems in the Mediterranean region, recently conducted a comprehensive study to examine the performance of Meteo-Logic’s weather forecasting system. His conclusion is that Meteo-Logic’s system provides the highest possible degree of accuracy in forecasting for specific spots, even when compared to other advanced forecasting systems.
Dr. Ziv, who is considered one of Israel’s foremost experts in dynamic meteorology, explains that there are three widely used methods used to make forecasts:
- What was is what will be – The forecaster examines what the weather was yesterday and assumes that today’s weather will be similar. Statistically, it works fairly well, but the chances of success drop during periods of variable weather and it’s clear that it’s an unacceptable method for the discerning consumer.
- Use of models– This method takes data from a widely used international model, the American GFS model. This type of model offers calculated temperature values for specific locations that are dozens of kilometers equidistant from one another. The disadvantage of this model is that there is no data for areas between the points, and to make a forecast for a specific spot one needs to make weighted calculations using several different points.This method misses temperature jumps in areas where weather conditions change sharply. There are times when it’s cooler along the shore because of winds blowing from the sea, while the country’s internal regions are suffering heat-wave conditions.
- Using sophisticated models – There are some very advanced models, in which the distance between the reporting points is small, from one to three kilometers apart. But, this method is very expensive and takes a lot of time to get up and running.
According to Dr. Ziv, Meteo-Logic offers a fourth forecasting method, which constitutes a successful alternative to the existing ones. Meteo-Logic’s method collects historic meteorological data for a specific place and analyzes it mathematically with current meteorological data from that same location to find links between them.
The Meteo-Logic system can make a long line of calculations, taking into account factorsspecific to that location. It will also take into account the data available from the GFS. All a user must do is upload the historic data from a local meteorological station and the system will give him an accurate forecast using forecasting equations based on the spot’s own history.
Dr. Ziv explains that during his experiment he made two tests. The local temperature was calculated by interpolating GFS data and arriving at a weighted average to get the estimated temperature for that site. At the same time, the Meteo-Logic model was run, and the results provided incontrovertible proof of Meteo-Logic’s advantage.
“The results were amazing,” said Dr. Ziv. “One of the best forecasting indices is the standard deviation. We compared the standard deviation of the forecast to the standard deviation of the GFS and Meteo-Logic’s deviation was smaller by half. This is a very significant improvement.”
Dr. Ziv notes that all existing systems suffer from mean deviation. The examination showed that an interpolated forecast is problematic, especially near the shore. Meteo-Logic, however, is able to provide a different forecast for each area.
“We’re talking about incredible progress,” Dr. Ziv says. “All that’s needed is to take meteorological measurements in a specific spot, provide the historical data and Meteo-Logic will on its own be able to provide a specific and accurate forecast.”
Dr. Baruch Ziv was the Israel Air Force’s meteorological officer for more than 20 years. He has a BA in physics and advanced degrees in dynamic meteorology. His love for weather forecasting goes back to his childhood at Kibbutz Kfar Giladi, where he got his first experience at forecasting by making weather predictions for local farmers.
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